Conviction and sentence in Rahul Gandhi Defamation case- A failure of Indian Trial Judiciary

The legality of US sanctions against Iran – An introspection by an Indian

 In 1979, I spent one month in Bangalore pursuing International Law studies under a renowned International Law scholar Prof. M.K. Nawaz. Iran was in the news every day. At that time, Iran was an economically powerful country under the questionable leadership of the Shah of Iran.  Ayotalla Khomeini was leading the Islamic revolution in Iran. Bangalore at that time was full of Iranian students because the Iranian government doled out generous scholarships for their young citizens to pursue the education of their choice in foreign countries. So, the prevailing crisis than in Iran spilled over in India, especially in Bangalore. The Iranian student community in Bangalore was naturally influenced by the happenings in Iran. They fought amongst themselves in Bangalore resulting in police cases. Some Bangalore criminal lawyers made big money from these fights.

 Soon thereafter, I received a grant from USICA (US International Communication Agency) to visit the USA. As an Indian, between USA and Russia, I was more for Russia which then enjoyed better relations with India. We all knew that every time when there was a war with Pakistan, it used superior American weapons and India was dependent on relatively inferior Russian weapons. Soon thereafter, I joined a Post Graduate Program in International Law. Naturally, the American library was our most preferred hangout. It was free to serious, liberal learners. Many a time, the smart library staff obliged us with free photo copies. Upto 1960, if you had analysed the UNSC voting pattern, Russia had used 55 of the 60 vetoes. For most of us then, America was an epitome of International decency often taking a principled stand in matters relating to Human rights, free global trade, welcoming refugees and immigrants. An ardent Russian fan (Sympathetic to PLO) like me then had to grudgingly concede that in many ways the US was superior to the rest of the world. It is was then known that USA was not India’s friend. In fact, it was Pakistan’s best friend. Pakistan was even a member of CENTO.

In the 1970’s, many Arab nations, under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, imposed an oil embargo against the United States, resulting in mile long queues of cars in US petrol bunks. Thus, compelling the US to build ‘Strategic Oil Reserve’ to ensure such things do not recur. At that point of time, Iran helped USA to fight the Saudi Arabian oil embargo. Soon thereafter, the Islamic revolution headed by Ayotalla Khomeini succeeded in dethroning the Shah of Iran. Subsequently, some student groups stormed into the US embassy and took a large number of US Diplomatic and Consular staff hostages. The United States went to the ICJ, filed a case and obtained Interim measures directing the Islamic Republic of Iran to ensure the safe release of hostages. Even though the Iranian government was not responsible for the original hostage taking, possibly to ensure the safety of US diplomatic staff, it owned the actions of the student groups. Despite the interim orders of ICJ, the hostage crisis continued for an unreasonably long time. The USA and all other Western European Nations imposed economic sanctions against Iran and went to the extent of freezing all the economic assets of Iran that were located outside Iran. The hostages were finally released. The frozen assets of Iran were de-frozen after ensuring that the US diplomatic and consular staff were given a generous compensation for each day of captivity (from and out of the frozen funds). These incidents marked the beginning of Iran’s economic downfall.

The USA oil embargo 1973

 Subsequently, the USA propped up Mr Saddam Hussein to fight a war against Iran. The war went on for about three or four years. The war naturally pushed up oil prices to very high levels, thereby affecting the economies of many Third World Countries. America itself was a minor victim. But it was also a major beneficiary. The American Seven Sisters (Seven oil companies that controlled global oil trade) made a fortune. Despite the Western support to Iraq, the Iran-Iraq war ended without a clear result. But, it ruined the economy of Iran even more. Iraq also suffered a great deal because it had to divert all its resources to fight a futile war instead of rising to the level of prosperity that other Arabian countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Libya, UAE, Muscat and Kuwait have. Saddam Hussein foolishly believed the American promise to compensate Iraq for their war efforts against Iran. He thought America will keep quiet about the Iraqi annexation of Kuwait, after making mandatory protests in the beginning. The Saudis and other Arab nations promised to finance the US war for liberating Kuwait from Iraq. The US and its allies received 20 billion dollars from the fellow Arab countries to teach Iraq, another Arab country, a lesson that they will not (hopefully) forget. But that’s another story altogether.

The oil wells burning 

 In the meantime, Egypt which was once a great friend of USSR, and believed that it was the leader of the Arab world, was humiliatingly defeated in their futile wars with Israel. By then, the economic clout of the USSR started deteriorating. So, Egypt had to make peace with Israel and become a recipient of substantial economic aid from the USA. Gradually, one after the other, all Arab nations made peace with Israel. Actually, Israel is not fighting Arab nations any more. America is doing their job. Sure, Israel, even now, bombs parts of Syria and Lebanon on regular basis, but that’s again a different story.

     

 Thus, in these circumstances, it is safe to conclude that, except Iran, no other Arab country is willing or capable of taking up arms against the Israeli hegemony in the region. In between,       America was able to neutralize Libya and Iraq. Iran, though stridently anti-US and anti-Israel, became too economically weak to take on either Israel or any Arab country. Of course, it cannot even imagine a war with the US even if it regularly makes belligerent statements against USA and Israel.

   Now, one can safely conclude that in the last 45 years, the entire global geo-politics has changed completely. The USSR does not exist. Russia sells its oil at dollar rates and receives dollar payments. It is also a major producer of oil. In many ways, Russia has toned down its aggression against USA. In fact, the USA has virtually condoned the Russian annexation of Crimea, despite the stiff opposition from the Western European Countries. Many of the erstwhile Soviet Block nations are now part of the European Economic Community (EEC). Slowly, but steadily, Germany is becoming again the real leader among the Western European Countries. Despite stiff opposition from USA, Germany and France took the lead to ensure the construction of the oil and gas pipeline from Russia. This initiative has provided a semblance of energy security to the EEC and has insulated Europe from the fluctuating global oil prices.

 Coming back to the Middle East, the political vacuum created by the exit of Saddam Hussein and Mohammed Gaddafi was sought to be filled by the ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and Levant). In fact, at one point it became a very important oil producer and started using oil revenue to finance its efforts to liberate Syria and Iraq. To ensure that ISIL does not have enough money for its war efforts, the USA unlocked its ‘Strategic Oil Reserves’ creating a glut in the global oil market and saw to it that the oil price per barrel plummeted to less than 40 US $ from the all time high of 120 US $ per barrel. Russia and Saudi Arabia were also victims of the deteriorating oil prices. America, though a minor victim of the declining oil prices, did not suffer that much because it was a major consumer as well. But Russia and Saudi Arabia were equally committed to contain ISIL. They had to accept low oil prices because a high oil price would allow ISIL to continue its wars. But now that ISIL has been put in its place, these oil producing nations want to increase the oil prices to a new high so that they can make up their losses in the last four years.

  It is known to the world that Israel has nuclear bombs. Iran and Iraq thought that for them to have a credible deterrence against Israel, they should have nuclear weapons for themselves. Whenever their efforts were close to realisation, the Israeli Air Force duly bombed these reactor sites and ensured that the Arab dream for an atom bomb does not become a reality for another decade if not for more. Hence, Iran realised that it is unrealistic for them to aspire to have an atom bomb. Iraq is not in an economic position to pursue such a misadventure.  Furthermore, Iraq is likely to split into two countries because the Kurdish rebels are really hoping that they will have an independent Kurdistan. What is stopping them is the determined opposition of Turkey. Turkey, that has a substantial Kurdish Population and is aware that independent Kurdish state Iraq will possible result in an independent Turkish Kurdistan. Furthermore, Iraq is no more a Sunni led Islamic country. It has a majority Shia population. Hence the moment the Americans get out, Iraq will become a natural ally of Iran. Iran, in the meanwhile, has been very careful in cultivating a better relationship with the Western European Countries. But its track record in treating women is as good as Saudi Arabia’s. At this point of time, Iran feels that if the economic sanctions imposed by USA and Western European nations are removed, even without nuclear weapons, it can become a credible leader of Islamic countries in the Middle East notwithstanding Iraq. Even though, Iran is perceived to be a fundamentalist theocratic state ruled by clergy, one has to recognize the ruling clergy for having being chosen by people in a democratic manner. If this yardstick is applied, the Saudi score would be low. Furthermore, WTO has put in place their rule based international trading regime that seeks to reduce the discretion of major powers in manipulating global trade. Besides, Iran knows that oil and gas are their only resources. For them to get out of their economic misery, they have to produce more of it and sell at reasonable price to reliable customers. Saudi Arabia, because of their dollar reserves and relatively much more quantities of oil reserves, are not under a compulsion to increase the production.

The Israeli strike against Iran/Iraq

  Even after the resolution of the American hostage crisis, many of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran continued to operate. When Iran sought a complete lifting of sanctions, the USA and Western nations cited the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Global Missile Control Regime and insisted that Iran should address these issues as well for it to qualify for total lifting of sanctions. Iran agreed to it. The US under the progressive leadership of Barrack Obama, demanded that Iran accept the visits of IAEA inspectors to all reactor site and give up its nuclear bomb dream. It is at this point of time that the Trump administration brought up the issue of Iranian support to Hezbolla and said that it will reimpose much worse sanctions against Iran. It is important to note that all the European allies, Japan and China opposed the US move, which in reality amounts to changing the goal post when the match had almost come to an end and Iran had a chance of winning the match. Hence US sanctions against Iran at this point are essentially to stop the flow of Iranian oil into the global market. Since Iranian oil substantially contributes to the global oil market, the supply will decrease and the demand will increase. This will naturally, result in increased oil prices which will benefit Saudi Arabia, Russia and USA. In other words, the USA wants to effectively ensure that Iran cannot take advantage of the increase in global oil prices

 Not surprisingly, when USA renounced the Nuclear Non-Proliferation agreement with Iran and sought to reimpose sanction, Iran took the matter to the ICJ and was successful in persuading the court to grant orders on interim measures that would protect Iranian trade interests. European nations, EEC, Japan and China, who are heavily dependent on Iranian oil, have indicated their displeasure regarding the Iranian oil sanctions. The US is no more a votary of free trade. It has pulled out of FTA’s with Mexico and Canada. Though it played a great role in the conclusion of the WTO agreement, it has threatened to pull out of the WTO and replace it with individual negotiated bilateral treaties after a string of adverse decisions against it in WTO dispute settlement body. Thus, the US is no more the fair, global leader that it claimed it was. It does not anymore tolerate refugees and welcome highly qualified immigrants. The world today is truly becoming multipolar and US has to accept the reality that it cannot manipulate the global trade regime as it presently does. If it continues, then the rest of the world must unite against the US economic hegemony.