Should We Fight China's India War Or Fight For The Liberation Of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir?

SHOULD WE FIGHT CHINA’S INDIA WAR OR FIGHT FOR THE LIBERATION OF PAKISTAN OCCUPIED KASHMIR?

AS ON 04/07/2020

1) During the 1970s, Neville Maxwell’s India’s China War informed the rest of the world that China had legitimate grievances against the McMahon Line and Tibet’s boundary with India. Actually, before the 1962 War, China gave a fair offer to India to redraw the boundaries on the footing of equality rather than on the footing of superiority that the United Kingdom enjoyed while fixing the boundaries of its colonies and their neighbours.  It is widely speculated now that Mr. V.K. Krishna Menon never believed that China would resort to the use of force and declare a war to redraw its frontiers. Furthermore, Mr. V.K. Krishna Menon was suspicious of a powerful Indian Armed Forces, who might be inclined to draw inspiration from their Pakistani counterparts. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru also felt that diplomatically India enjoyed more international clout than the People’s Republic of China, which was then (continues to be even now) behind the “iron curtain”, and China had just suffered drought, famines, food scarcity, etc. Let us recall that, then, India and China had an economic parity. In fact, the Chinese Premier, during his visit to India, gave an offer for settling the boundary issue. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and Mr. V.K. Krishna Menon rejected the same and did not take effective steps to strengthen the Indian Armed Forces, in terms of its inventory requirements, training, arsenal, etc. So, when China commenced hostilities against India, the latter was no match for it. Mercifully, the Air Force and the Navy of both countries did not participate in the war. China declared a ceasefire after announcing that its military action had accomplished its boundary objectives. In fact, the Pulitzer Award-winning author, Neville Maxwell, blames India for suffering a defeat in the war, essentially because of its intransigence, inflated self-worth and wrongly perceived superior international status. So, it can be said that the award-winning book “India’s China War”, added further insult to the injury of India’s war defeat.

2) It is said that history repeats itself with regular periodicity. At least two-thirds of the world today look at China with suspicion and distrust, on their complicity in the Covid-19 pandemic. Many nations are gradually realising that the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a debt-trap in the making. The Chinese are aggressively taking full control of important ports and sea-routes. Nations that were perceived to be friendly to China, like Burma, the USA, and the South-Asian nations, are beginning to rethink their orientation. Countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh are increasing their economic dependence on China. Pakistan is now deprived of the USA's military and economic aid and dwindling economic assistance from the Middle Eastern nations. It has almost become the economic colony of China. In other words, more than at any other time during the last sixty years, China is under a domestic compulsion to reassure its people that its march towards becoming the No. 1 superpower of the world, is more or less certain. The obvious choice is to go on a limited duration war with India, restricted to certain theatres and inflict on India, yet another crushing defeat, which will in turn be a lesson for the countries located in the South China Sea. This will also overshadow their future course of action in Hong Kong and Taiwan. After all, China’s military expenditure is three times that of India’s. So, China may be able to hit several birds with one stone. Economically, China has put Australia, more or less, on the mat and continues its aggressive postures against Taiwan and Japan. In Hong Kong, one more quota of stiffer human rights regime has been imposed. For all these reasons, for the first time in fifty years, China may be compelled to declare war against India.

3) The question that arises now is, whether India will take the Chinese bait for an all-out war. But this time around, in India, a different Prime Minister, from a humbler grass-roots origin, represents its people.  During his visit to Ladakh, yesterday, he vehemently declared that the policy of expansionism in international relations will not work anymore, and that, a nation with such a policy will either be defeated or shown its place. Ever since he has taken on the mantle, he has continuously strengthened the capabilities of the Indian Armed Forces, in terms of replenishing their inventory needs. The relationship of the Indian Armed Forces with the political leadership of the country is as good as (in my opinion a shade better than) it was during the regime of Ms. Indira Gandhi. One must objectively record that India, since its independence, has fought four wars excluding the 1947 border conflict with Pakistan in Kashmir. All the four wars were formally initiated by its two neighbouring states, viz, China and Pakistan. In the 1962 war with China, India suffered a crushing defeat. Aksai Chin was annexed by China. Pakistan duly ceded some areas to China in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir region. The Indo-Pak war was a no-result war despite the fact that Pakistan failed to accomplish its declared military objectives. But, the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation war, is no doubt, the biggest jewel in the Indian Armed Forces crown. 93,000 Pakistani soldiers surrendered to India, but unfortunately, this was not used to put an end to the vexing Kashmir militancy problem. The fourth war, namely, the Kargil war was General Musharraf’s brainchild. After Pakistan suffered a crushing defeat, General Musharraf pompously declared that he held India by its collar, and the political leadership in Pakistan failed to capitalise on the apparent military advantage. In the recent happenings in the Galwan Valley, twenty Indian soldiers were martyred and many more grievously injured, and a few others unaccounted for. China on its part is continuing its enigmatic silence on the number of casualties. It consistently declares that it is not for a military solution, and both sides should not take any precipitative actions. However, international observers are convinced that there is a war-like situation at the Indo-China border. Even though there is no armed conflict, the situation is far from being peaceful. In fact, it is more war-like. Both the nations have not only amassed troops and equipment close to their borders but have also intensified their diplomatic efforts. In my opinion, this situation is even more alarming than the Covid-19 pandemic. People in India are talking about a “two-front war” in a jingoistic fashion. While I am not averse to a limited military action for the liberation/annexation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, a military conflict with China, will have to be avoided at any cost. This is because India can take on the Pakistani military and economy, in tandem. As for China, militarily, we can be reasonably sure that India will not perform as badly as they did in 1962 and, will definitely give China a bloody nose (after suffering equally bad injuries). But, economically, India is no match for China. In case of a war with Pakistan, both the nations will use imported weapons. But, India should not forget that China will use most of its indigenous weaponry and missiles, and also, more modern and advanced Russian weaponry. Hence, if there is going to be a war, let it only be on one front, namely, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

4) Historically, Afghanistan was a part of Bharat. The Kingdom of Gandhara was located in the present-day Afghanistan. It was where Sage Ashwa bred the best quality horses. During later times, Buddhism was the most dominant religion in Afghanistan, as evident from the now destroyed Bamiyan Buddhas. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit, and Baltistan were original principalities of the Dogra Kingdom, headquartered in Srinagar. Pakistan occupied these territories by deceit and wrongful use of military force. As per the laws of state succession, any territory belonging to the erstwhile state automatically becomes the property of the successor state/s. In fact, even the Congress Government which was led by Mr. P.V. Narasimha Rao declared before the Indian Parliament that, one day, India must be able to get back these areas, and the Kashmir conundrum will not be considered as fully resolved until these objectives are accomplished. If indeed, these objectives are endorsed by the present BJP Government, then there is no better time to accomplish this objective than now, given the present situation. Economically, Pakistan is at its worst. If the status quo continues for another four to five years, the Belt and Road Initiative will be complete in Pakistan. If this happens, Pakistan will not be able to pay back the interest, principal installments and the minimum assured returns to the Chinese companies executing these projects. Then like Sri Lanka in Hambantota, Pakistan will have no other option, but to cede lands to the extent of at least twenty kilometres width on both sides of the road. If this happens, India will never be able to repossess Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit, and Baltistan. Maj. Gaurav Arya states that if it happens, it will be the best strategic safety insurance for Pakistan. Without that, India cannot achieve its strategic objective of sharing a border with Afghanistan. So, for all the reasons supra, if India is really serious about the liberation and annexation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, there is no better time than now. Pakistan continues to provoke India by regularly facilitating the entry of terrorists. It has now sponsored the Resistance Front in Jammu and Kashmir after the earlier entities were eliminated. It has increased the number of its soldiers around the Leh border. It is also rumoured that it will facilitate the refueling of Chinese airplanes in its Skardu Airbase. To prevent all these events from becoming a military reality, India must commit another surgical strike for the liberation of Pakistan Occupation Kashmir. In the event of war now, it should first be against Pakistan. India’s China war can wait.