1. Recently, there was an incident near the Red
Fort in New Delhi where more than 10 people lost their lives and several others
were injured. Around the same time, the Gujarat Anti-Terrorism Squad arrested
individuals who were attempting to extract ricin, the most poisonous substance, from castor oil.
These two incidents cannot be seen in isolation. We must also consider that the
very next day, there was a blast in Islamabad where about 10 people were killed.
We still do not know who is actually responsible. Newspapers and television
channels have reported who has been arrested and what their affiliations are. However,
incidents of this magnitude require thorough investigation by multiple agencies
before arriving at any final conclusion. That naturally will take a reasonable
time.
2. A minister from Mr Modi’s government stated
that preliminary impressions suggest Pakistan may be behind the attack.
They have also warned that Operation Sindhoor is not over and has not been abandoned.
With the recent Constitutional Amendment, Mr Asim Munir is now fully in control
of Pakistan. We also know that Mr Donald Trump, the maverick President of the
United States of America, has decided to collaborate with Pakistan on a
cryptocurrency exchange project that will significantly reduce the current
importance of Iran in the global cryptocurrency market. For the foreseeable
future, Pakistan’s “honeymoon” with the United States will continue,
even though the average American citizen does not think very highly of Pakistan,
and vice versa. Mr. Raghuram Rajan, a former governor of Reserve Bank of India has
remarked that USA is an unreliable partner in the current situation.
3. India’s situation cannot be described as
either precarious or alarming. We are far better off than we were 20 years ago.
Our defence preparedness has significantly improved. At the same time, the
United States has recently delayed indefinitely the shipment of three Apache
helicopters for which India has already paid and which have long been due for delivery.
Recently, newspapers reported that the Government of India has signed a major
deal with the United States for supplying jet engines to be fitted into our
indigenous (yes, indigenous!) LCA(Light Combat Aircraft). The delivery is
expected in three years from now. God knows what will happen to it. Perhaps it
will go the same way as the Apache helicopters or the Tarapur nuclear fuel.
India must understand and has already understood that the United States is the
most unreliable partner in foreign affairs under Mr Donand Trump it is
shamelessly selfish. In the last 2 days India has signed a long-term LPG deal
with USA and the supply of Javelin missiles. But everyone is aware that the US is
unaccustomed to seeing any country as an equal participant in global politics.
Its recent experiences with the People’s Republic of China have forced USA to
realise that it is no longer the sole actor that others unquestioningly follow.
Of course, the United States remains a dominant global power and will likely
continue to be so for the good part of this century. No one can antagonise USA unless
they are willing to pay a stiff price for it.
What is
India going to do with Pakistan now?
Reports indicate that the explosives seized
recently, including about three tonnes of ammonium nitrate, at least 24
detonators, and a state-of-the-art combat gun are not necessarily of foreign origin.
Much of it appears to have originated within India. Ammonium nitrate is
commonly used in agriculture, road construction, mining, and industrial explosives.
It is entirely possible that it was sourced from within India and
investigations confirm this fact. Unlike RDX, which is highly regulated and
difficult to obtain, ammonium nitrate can be procured relatively easily.Therefore,
before linking this seizure directly to Pakistan, Indian agencies should
provide more credible evidence to the public. Anyone demanding evidence or verifiable
proof should not be declared as being unpatriotic or anti-national.
4. It is unlikely that India will take the Red
Fort blast lightly.As Indian citizens, we expect the Government of India to respond appropriately
to countries responsible for fomenting political unrest and armed rebellion
within our territory. Some form of tangible and credible action is likely. For
the last three months(i.e. ever since Mr Donald Trump took over), we have been
told that the armed conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza will end “very soon”.
But these vague assertions did not get Mr Trump the Nobel peace prize, that he
desperately wants.However, there is still no visible proof for conflicts coming
to an end.The situation in both regions remains alarming. Africa, too, is not
in a stable or peaceful state. Contrary to popular belief, the economic
domination of European powers over African nations has not ended. Incidents in
Burkina Faso and other places indicate that the Western powers accustomed to
exploiting others in Asia and Africa are not going to give up easily. USA is very
annoyed with Nigeria. The USA has threatened to use Military Power, if Nigeria
attempts De-dollarize its oil trade it will be naïve to trust that these
colonial or imperial powers, to behave fairly. The conduct of the United States
in imposing tariffs that are to be ultimately paid by American consumers shows
a similar pattern. Even though US federal courts have ruled that the imposition
of such tariffs is illegal, the current Trump administration has shown no
intention of abandoning them. Tariffs remain the USA’s preferred instrument to
maintain global dominance. About 30 years ago, the United States took the lead
in establishing the WTO. Back then, it argued for a tariff-free regime and
trade based on “competitive cost advantage”. Now, the same USA is
imposing selective tariffs of 50% on India on an average, around 19% on others,
and 15% for its preferred partners. This clearly shows that the US has
abandoned the principle of free trade. The consequences for the rest of the
world will be significant.
Everyone predicts that the “Trump effect”
will not persist in the USA even if a Republican government gets elected next
time. India remains diplomatic and has not done anything that could be seen as
hostile to the USA. Nevertheless, everyone in India knows that aspiring to be a
“friend” of the USA is suicidal.
5. India’s relationship with China remains strained.India’s relationship with Russia is stable and positive.Its relationship with the UK is as strained as its relationship with the USA.
Honestly, you can ignore UK. More than half of the problem we have with
Pakistan can be attributed to seeds of rivalry sown by the British in the
Indian subcontinent. If India wants to modernise its airports,ports and defence
capabilities, it should look toward Scandinavian countries and eastern countries such as Japan and South
Korea instead of relying solely on Russia, France, or the United States.
Unfortunately, India’s relationship with Scandinavian nations is not as strong
as it should be. With Japan and South Korea our relationship is getting better
6. Thankfully, India’s foreign affairs are being handled by an
experienced diplomat, Dr. S. Jaishankar. Under his leadership, the Narendra
Modi government is likely to take the right decisions without compromising
India’s core interests. The situation is still unclear. We will have to wait
and see how events unfold. But one thing is certain: If Pakistan is responsible
for the Red Fort blasts and for the extraction of deadly ricin for use within
India, then India will be compelled to respond far more strongly than it has in
the past Army like Pakistan is a permanent threat to India's growth and foreign
policy. India should be more responsive to the aspirations of Baluchis,
Afghans, Pashtuns, and Sindhis.
7. We sincerely hope that the Indian subcontinent does not become
another armed conflict zone(More than hope, it is a prayer, but unfortunately,
it may not become a reality for too long). Even
China, with the most powerful air force and the largest navy in the world, is
hesitant to take back Taiwan by using military force. The Indian Defence
Minister has indicated that the people of Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan will,
at some point in time, choose to merge with India. India is unlikely to use
military power to retake these areas, but if China invades Taiwan, India should
do the same with Pakistan.
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