Election results 2019: Merits of Mr. Modi 2 and the uniqueness of South Indian Results

PROLOGUE

1. India has almost got back to normalcy after a period of total inactivity due to election related uncertainties. For the next five years, Mr. Modi and his team will be at the helm of affairs ensuring continuation of the existing policies, and in fact pursue them even  aggressively. Unfortunately, Ram Mandir will be at the top of the agenda. The message to Pakistan is loud and clear. Only the leaders of the BISMSTEC Nations were invited for Mr. Modi’s swearing in and not the heads of SAARC. Many analysts point out that Modi had successfully consolidated the Hindutva votes cutting across caste lines. In the process, unwittingly, he had made the minorities namely Muslims and Christians to choose different non-BJP parties in different states. Whatever is the reason for this partial polarization, it does not augur well for Indian democracy.

2. Mr. Modi is a charismatic national leader today. He  captured political powers first within his party against long time senior political stalwarts like L.K Advani, Arun Shourie, M.M Joshi, Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha (upper caste politicians, general category,). After he won the battle for supremacy in his own party, he repeated the success in the 2014 elections. While people expected the BJP to form a coalition government, due to political compulsions, Mr. Modi surprised everybody by winning a simple majority in the Parliament. In 2014, for a brief while, after the declaration of election results, there were some BJP MPs who wanted to become Prime Minister. They are Ms. Sushma Swaraj, Mr Rajnath Singh and Mr. Nitin Gadkari. They backed out later without a fight and became high performing members of Mr. Modi’s governing team. In 2019, all these leaders declared in advance that Mr. Modi’s will be the Prime Minister. Ms Sushma Swaraj had declared her intention to go into political hibernation. It is in these circumstances, that Mr. Modi will perform his role and discharge his responsibility not only in India, but also in the Global affairs.

2019 ELECTION RESULTS

3. Expectedly, Mr. Modi performed well in North India, Karnataka and Maharashtra. The BJP made substantial gains in East India which has elected more BJP members. In Andhra Pradesh, it drew a blank. In 18 out of 20 constituencies, it secured less votes than NOTA. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, they got a thorough beating. Its greatest success was that their candidates were in a position to redeem their election caution deposits mainly due to their Allies. But in Karnataka BJP virtually obliterated JDS and Congress even though both of them had a prepoll alliance.

4. In Uttar Pradesh, Mr. Modi, a Gujrati by birth and culture, led from the front. He chose Varanasi. After he became an MP he entered the Parliament after a ceremonial prostration. He bid goodbye to Ahmedabad, after having been enriched a thousand rupees from his mother. He settled comfortably well at New Delhi in the political process of Union Government, which is many times more complex than managing the affairs of the state like Gujrat. In the next 5 years, he tried very hard. Sure, there were allegations of corruption, but many an average Indian felt that Modi is less corrupt than the other political leaders. In these five years, the Union of India has become more pro United States than at any other time. He substantially improved India’s relations with all the neighbours except Pakistan. He had befriended the European Economic Committee particularly France and Germany and maintained a healthy relationship with the United Kingdom and Russia. With China, it is always a love hate relationship. Every Indian government would love a good relationship with China. Sometimes, the Big Brother China throws up hate and expects that every country in the region should gulp it. Hence, in terms of foreign policy, he made a significant difference by openly befriending Israel, yet at the same time ensuring healthy economic, cultural and diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran and even Afghanistan. Modi is yet to make a significant contribution in terms of India’s relationship with Africa and Latin America. These areas are more under the Chinese sphere of influence. One has to appreciate that Mr. Modi and his diplomatic team had often taken upon themselves punishing schedules by visiting a lot of countries that were not in the earlier government’s diplomatic map. Global Diplomacy wise, Modi government has all but given up the non -aligned posture.

5. Economically, he took some very bold decisions. Demonetisation undoubtedly was a disaster. His government eased out two RBI Governers who were just trying to be economically prudent. BJP implemented GST which was actually a Congress baby. Revenue realisation has gotten better and the existing loop holes are getting plugged.Revenue losses are gradually coming down. Petrol and diesel are highly taxed. Both demonetisation and GST implementation imposed a lot of compliance costs on the Indian Middle Class, the tax paying class.Many traders voted against him. However, it should be conceded that, by and large the Mr. Modi government did not allow development tempo to slack. There has been a substantial shake up of the banks in terms of stiffer norms to facilitate more transparency relating to the failure of big loans. No one in the past really thought that companies like Reliance Communication and Kingfisher Airline will be declared insolvent. Jet Airways will probably get into the list. Many of the leading Indian capitalists of India are divesting their holdings to reduce their company’s debt burden, thereby improving the recovery of the bank loans that have become NPA. Modi government should receive an ‘Above Average performance’ grading in economic administration.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

6. Strategically and militarily, the Modi government did better than its predecessors. Defence acquisition from Russia, France, Israel and United States are on the increase. The Indian Airforce is receiving the badly the needed infusion of fighter jets and attack helicopters. Slowly but steadily the allocation for the Navy is also on the increase with greater emphasis on local manufacturing capability. The URI Surgical Strike, and the Balalkot Bombings have significantly improved national morale. The authorisation for Anti Satellite missile Test was the final icing on the cake. Very soon, India is poised to become an exporter of modern weapons, Hence, militarily the performance of Modi government was very good, if not the best.

CONTRADICTIONS AND CONFUSION IN ELECTION RESULTS

7. But the best part of Modi lies in his political achievements. Even though the State of Delhi is ruled by Aam Aadmi Party lead by Mr.Arvind Kejriwal, the voters elected an all BJP team for Parliament. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh who voted for Congress in the last assembly elections, came back to give Modi better mandate in the central elections. In Uttar Pradesh this time Mr. Akhilesh Yadav and Ms Mayawati evolved a political alliance which on paper looked very impressive. Everyone thought the combination of Yadav, Muslim, Jat and Dalit votes which would together constitute not less than 60% of total electorate would simply stop Modi’s Juggernaut.  But they were in for a very rude shock. The election results show that the average Indian voters, whatever his/her religion and caste is able to relate to Modi and repose faith and confidence on Modi’s leadership. But alas, there is still a linguistic divide! This phenomenon had been repeated in West Bengal and Orrisa as where, BJP did not even have foothold about ten years ago.

8. Though the Modi government, the with total support of the Opposition tried to bring about progressive changes in the appointment of the High Court and Supreme Court judges, the Supreme Court struck down the unanimous Constitutional amendment. By and large, the Modi government faced less inconvenience from the Higher Judiciary. In fact, they were very indulgent to him. Furthermore, the chinks in the judicial armour have become more visible due to the acts of the Judiciary itself.  Modi government enjoyed a reasonably Cosy relationship with judiciary. New Judicial appointments are being made regularly. That trend is not visible in the appointment of quasi-judicial and tribunal members. Judiciary is very suspicious of the proliferation of tribunals and would like to exercise more control over the appointments instead of leaving it to the Ministers of Law and / or Ministry of Personnel.

MR. MODI AND SOUTH INDIA

9. Thus, in the normal situation, in light of the above parameters, Mr. Narendra Modi should deserve a second term. But the people in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh were forthright in their rejection of Modi led BJP.  Incidentally, these three states are performing better in terms of Human Development Index. Kerala is of course unique because Muslims and Christians are not exactly a Minority community in Kerala.There are places where they are a Majority. Tamil Nadu was demanding for a separate state ever since 1950s. Some of the political leaders who demanded a separate South India state, over a period of time gradually have given it up However, of late, there are signs that these demands are reviving in a more subtle yet deeper way. Andhra Pradesh now is a very progressive and vibrant state. In fact, Mr. Venkaiah Naidu hails from Andhra Pradesh and Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman, prior to her induction in Mr. Modi’s government was domiciled in Andhra Pradesh. Yet, in the 18 out of 24 constituencies of Andhra, NOTA had performed better than the BJP. The success of the Modi, Amit Shah combination as manifested in the election results of Karnataka, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Orissa could not penetrate these three states. This issue should be seen from the perspective of an average, self-respecting, educated South- Indian voter. The following factors played a very important role on the resounding rejection of Mr. Modi’s leadership by the South Indian states.

DID MR. MODI DISSAPOINT  SOUTH INDIAN VOTERs?

10. To begin with, soon after the Modi government came to power in 2014 over-zealous fringe tormentors in the Sangh Parivar took up their cow protection issue in a violent and aggressive way. There have been cases of people getting murdered on the suspicion that they were consuming beef or that they were moving cattle for slaughter. To me these are hate crimes carried out with the diabolical intention of restricting the food habits and culture of Muslims, Christians, Jews and even one section of the Hindu community. Disturbingly, after the Modi government came to power now one more ghastly incident has occurred in Uttar Pradesh. Earlier, I had blogged (https://profmurali.blogspot.com/2017/04/can-other-indians-eat-their-beef-in.html) on the issue. The BJP government in Uttar Pradesh has claimed that they were only restricting the illegal cattle slaughter houses in Uttar Pradesh on hygiene and environmental grounds, and that they have no problem with Licensed cattle slaughter houses. BJP should come out with a national policy on cattle slaughter. It should openly recognize the rights of cattle owners to slaughter and promote the export of beef in a big way. India is over populated not only with people but with cattle. The policy should also declare that eating beef is in no way anti- Indian. Even though I am a vegetarian by choice, such a reassurance is absolutely necessary for the votes of these three states consider BJP as a political option.

11. REGIONAL PARTIES IN FEDARAL POLITY :

The State of Tamil Nadu first heralded the concept of regional parties, in India. Very soon other States followed. None of the national parities including the Marxist have a remote chance of capturing political power in TN. In fact, Tamil Nadu did not even figure in the electioneering strategies of the Modi Amit Shah combination. Unfortunately for the BJP, their political face in Tamil Nadu included Mr. H Raja and S.Ve. Shekhar. During the pre-election meetings, these two people were boorish and arrogant. There were unreasonable and displayed an air of superiority. They unsuccessfully tried to belittle the social icons of South India. Their pro- Hindu and anti- Periyar stand cost their parties many votes nullifying the alliance arithmetic. In fact, the Tamil people, who proudly identify themselves as Dravidians. They suspected that these leaders represent the Aryan culture and showed them the door at the earliest available political opportunity. The BJP should do serious introspection. It should exclude the two from Tamil Nadu scene and give more prominent roles to leaders like Ms. Tamil Isai, Ms Vanathi Srinivasan, Ms Chandralekha IAS (Rtd) and other younger generation leaders. If it occurs, they will have better luck in the forthcoming panchayat and assembly elections.

12. During Mr. Modi’s first government people always nurtured a notion that the BJP is very partial to states where they have a substantial presence. The States that are not allowing any foothold for BJP in their territories get a raw deal in federal disputes. Everyone in Tamil Nadu vividly remember as to how the Modi government delayed the constitution of Cauvery Water Management Authority because the BJP was fighting a crucial election in Karnataka then. Even when there were major cyclones in Tamil Nadu involving huge loss of property and human and animal lives, none of the BJP leaders made the customary, mandatory, consolatory aerial visits. Tamil Nadu, a lower riparian state with large areas under rain shadow region has been locked in water disputes, with all its neighbouring states. Hence the population of Tamil Nadu would naturally expect that the Union Government that should put in place a more effective management of interstate water disputes under Independent authorities.  Unfortunately, the Modi government has paid scant attention to it. True, they have made the right noises about Ken and Betwa rivers linking and ensuring at least partial implementation of the Godavari Project. If Mr. Nitin Gadkari is to be believed, the excess waters of Godavari will quench the thirst of Chennai and the Northern district of Tamil Nadu. But Tamils are actually afraid that this promise is made to convince the state of Tamil Nadu to give up its legitimate share in Kaveri waters. Despite spending a lot of money , TN is as of now is not getting its due share in the Telugu Ganga Project. Unless the Modi government II can put in place a permanent credible mechanism for sharing the waters of intestate rivers, it cannot get the trust and confidence of the people of Tamil Nadu.

SIDE STORIES OF TAMIL NADU

13. Interestingly for the first time, out of the 40 MP’s two CPI and two more CPI(M) candidates have been elected from Tamil Nadu. This is indeed a welcome development. Marxist parties have been wiped out from their traditional pocket boroughs like Tripura, West Bengal and Kerala. Slowly, in the Indian Political scenario, Marxist MP’s are becoming an ‘Endangered species’. Hence, the four MPs from Tamil Nadu have contributed a lot for preserving the political diversity of India. If the same alliance continues, Marxist parties can hope to have 24 MLA’s in the forthcoming Assembly elections. The Marxists in Tamil Nadu alternated their support either to ADMK or DMK. They are unlikely to support BJP. But people in Bengal whisper that most of the traditionality Marxist votes are gradually migrating to BJP. Emergence of Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) headed by Kamal Hassan is yet another left of centre party. These forces will provide BJP a very credible ideological challenge to the RSS inspired BJP politics.

14. One must also not ignore the strengthening of the Tamil Nationalist movement which by itself is not bad. Mr Seeman the founder of Naam Tamilar Katchi, this time had secured 3.8% of the total votes. Had the Mr. Kamal Haasan led MNM not contested the elections, Naam Tamilar Katchi would have gotten 7% of the total polled votes. In addition, Mr. Thirumurugan Gandhi of May 17^th movement, Kulathur Mani of Dravidan Party and Mr. Theagu of Makkal Kalai Ilakkiya Kazhagam, who are not in electoral politics, aggressively promote the Tamil nationalist cause. These people are convinced that Tamils should have their own homeland. Though they realize that it is not very congenial time for open sedition, they are now busy creating conditions for such an eventuality. Unwittingly people like Mr. H. Raja and Mr. S. Ve Shekhar provide these people a semblance of credibility. This group also opposes the majority of the central projects in the state of Tamil Nadu. They include Kudankulam Nuclear Power Projects, Neutrino Project, Hydro carbon extraction in Cauvery Basin, Eight lane speed ways, Container terminal in Colachal, in fact all major projects of national importance. Major mainstream Tamil Nadu political parties like DMK, ADMK and parties do not oppose them whole heartedly. But all the political parties except BJP have recorded their unanimous opposition to NEET and the Sterlite Copper smelter at Tuticorian. In fact, there was police firing in which more than thirteen local residents lost their lives tragically. This will be one of the major political challenges that the BJP will have to face in the state of Tamil Nadu. The same company, Vedanta have been awarded the right to extract hydro carbons in the Kaveri basin and in parts of union territory of Puducherry. Since these companies will mostly be employing an environmentally dangerous fracking method, people have been protesting against the hydro carbon extraction.

15. The Modi government will have a tough job in hand to educate the people of Tamil Nadu that paddy and sugarcane (highly water intensive crops) are not only economically unviable in the long run  but will also affect the Tamil Nadu government’s ability to provide drinking water for domestic and industrial use. It will be cheaper to buy sugar from Brazil than growing it in Tamil Nadu. Similarly, the Kaveri delta farmers who have been growing two-three paddy crops in one agricultural season, should be persuaded to change the cropping pattern in Tamil Nadu. Primarily this is a State Government responsibility. Hence, the BJP government should evolve a policy to persuade the state government to consider changes in the cropping pattern of Tamil Nadu.

16.  Surely, issues like NEET and the 124^th Constitutional Amendment providing for 10% reservation to the open general quota people, also received an adverse reaction among the people of Tamil Nadu. The BJP government with the help of the local state government, should convince the common man that these things are in national interest. In fact, these projects such as NEET, Neutrino project, hydro carbon extraction, change in cropping pattern will be more beneficial to the state of Tamil Nadu in the long run. But, Mr. Modi and his team should remember that Tamils have successful history of resisting any kind of imposition. The aggressive imposition of Hindi as advocated by the Congress government in the 50’s and 60’s has ensured that Tamil student do not study Hindi in schools even though states like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and even Kerala have acquired to the Hindi imposition. Mr. Modi and his team may well remember that it is the state of Tamil Nadu which initiated the first meaningful debate  on State autonomy and Federal government. Many, all over India are sceptical about the role of regional parties. Mr. Modi and his team should realize that not all regional parties are secessionists and they merely aspire to their legitimate share in national governance. Any attempt to stifle their demand will only further strengthen Tamil Nationalism and in the long run will be a serious threat to national integration. Yet another way for BJP to improve its image in Tamil Nadu can be finding an amicable solution to the problem of Tamil Nadu fisherman straying in the Sri Lankan territorial waters. The Modi government should negotiate a treaty with Sri Lankan government that will provide Indian and Sri Lankan fishermen the right to fish in each others’ territorial waters on a reciprocal basis.

IS MR. MODI, AN INDIAN NATIONAL LEADER OR GLOBAL DIPLOPMATIC STATESMAN?

17. An Average Tamil voter believes that diplomatic relation with Sri Lanka is a big let-down not only for Jaffna Tamils but also the Indian Tamils domiciled in the Central Planation Districts. Actually, due to a very bad policy, India lost a Prime Minister at his Prime and many Indian soldiers lost their lives while carrying out a thankless job against the LTTE on behalf of the government of Sri Lanka. Under Customary Internatonal  law,Ethnic minorities have enjoyed social and cultural rights. But under the guise of continued political instability in Sri Lanka, the present Sri Lankan government is not very serious about the protection of ethnic minority rights. In fact, even Norway, Canada and Australia, who had some have articulated their concerns about the Sri Lankan government not treating its Minorities properly. In fact, so long as the Sri Lankan government is able to deny the minority rights of the Sri Lankan Tamils, the Tamil Nationalist movement demanding an independent Tamil state will continue to thrive in Tamil Nadu. Hence, Mr. Modi’s foreign policy should attempt to ensure that the Eastern Muslims, Tamils, Central plantation Indian Tamils, Colombo and Jaffna Tamils have congenial environment for realization of their human rights.

 PROBLEM OF INDIAN FISHERMAN IN SRI LANKAN WATERS

18.  The frequency of Indian Tamil fishermen getting killed in Sri Lankan waters due to naval or coast guard actions had come down. But periodically, Indian fisherman are imprisoned by Sri Lanka and fisherman are made to serve prison terms and pay heavy fines for getting their impounded boats released. To prevent this, the Union of India should negotiate a bilateral treaty with the Sri Lanka that would facilitate the nationals of each country to fish in the territorial waters of the other country in respect of the defined area between Karaikkal and Dhanushkodi. Of course, the fisherman of both countries may be obligated to adopt the traditional fishing practices that were prevalent in the region before 1980. This will substantially address the Sri Lankan concern that Indian fisherman adopt unsustainable fishing practices in a highly sensitive global bio-diversity hotspot. Till such a bilateral treaty is concluded, the Indian and Sri Lankan fishing vessels should be mandated to have GPS system and appropriate warning must be given to those fishing vessels that accidently stray into the other country’s territorial waters. In the meantime,if the Modi government II implements efficiently the Salam- Chennai 8 lane speedway, complete the construction of AIIMS campus, increases its medical students off stake, people of the Tamil Nadu will be more inclined to accept BJP in a smoother way. The question is will they do it? If they do not that, it will prove to be the greatest threat to Indian national integration.